工业的& Logistics

The UK logistics market will experience continued occupational demand above long-term averages, with third-party logistics distributors leading take-up, as organisations seek more flexibility in their supply chains. Vacancy rates will remain critically low, as build-to-suit development grows, and rising cost of finance and higher exit yields create a challenging environment for speculative development. Following a period of sustained repricing, logistics yields will stabilise. Industrial and logistics assets will remain attractive to investors with continued rental growth expected.

Key Takeaways

1. 占领者的需求将继续下去，尽管比最近破纪录的时期低于十年平均水平。随着公司寻求更大的灵活性并寻求外包供应链流程，3PLS将领导部门级别的采用。
2. Vacancy rate to remain at a critically low level, with lack of available units hindering take-up levels. Rising cost of finance, increasing construction costs and higher exit yields will create a challenging environment for development.
3. Rental growth will continue, driven by the demand and supply imbalance. The growth rate will moderate compared to the quarterly double-digit rental growth levels experienced through 2021 and early 2022.
4. 电气运输的自动化和进步将增加对电力的需求。在评估潜在的建筑物和遗址时，缺乏足够的权力将成为占用者的交易。
5. Following a period of sustained repricing, logistics yields will stabilise, potentially sooner than other sectors. The logistics sector will reinforce its position as a major contributor to total real estate investment and will remain an attractive asset class.

Lack of new supply could squeeze take-up levels

Following a record-breaking period, take-up levels have started to moderate, but occupier demand will likely continue through 2023 and remain above the 10-year average. Big box logistics space under offer at the end of Q3 totalled 16.8m sq ft (up 27% YoY), indicating that appetite from occupiers for warehouse and manufacturing space is still strong, despite caution over the impact of the cost of living on consumers, and a slowdown in retail spend.

需求是由越来越多的占用者驱动的，这些占领者的第三方物流分销商处于行业水平，这一趋势正在欧洲大陆和美国观察到这一趋势。我们预计，随着组织寻求更大的灵活性并越来越希望将其供应链流程外包。随着公司继续在电力和燃料，零售需求的波动以及更广泛的经济风险方面，公司继续遭受进一步的能源价格不确定性，这可能会加速。

尽管占领者在传统上的主要地点的建筑物优先考虑，但我们希望在“ off Prime”或次要地点的建筑物中增长。这将是由于符合居住者所需规范的主要地点的建筑物缺乏可用性的驱动，此外还可以承受这些地区的租金。我们还希望看到，希望与主要铁路枢纽相邻的占用者数量有所增加，从而受益于运输成本的潜在节省，同时减少了碳足迹。

Figure 11: UK annualised rental growth, CPI and forecast

资料来源：CBRE研究和ONS（租赁增长是加权平均值，由可租金空间计算）

新的A级单元将很快吸收

Despite a record amount of space under construction, the UK logistics occupational market continues to be very tight, with new grade A stock being quickly absorbed by occupiers. This is translating to critically low national vacancy rates; sub 2% for the last five quarters. At current take-up levels, there are only two months of ready-to-occupy space available, and we anticipate that the supply response through 2023 will continue to be insufficient to satisfy demand. Any new stock will be attractive to occupiers, with the acute lack of supply potentially restricting take-up levels, despite demand persisting.

我们还看到，由于缺乏可用的投机单位，削弱开发人员的风险付费以及越来越多的定制占用者要求，占领者正在转向建造诉讼的发展。raybet开户我们预计，这种趋势将继续随着明年的建筑套件开发的增长而持续。raybet开户

With rising ‘all in’ cost of debt finance, increasing construction costs, and higher exit yields, we expect that some speculative developments may become unviable, further impacting supply.

Rental growth to moderate

As supply will remain constricted, we will see continued rental growth across all regions, most pertinent in the Midlands and North of England. Rental growth is likely to be lower than the double-digit quarterly rental growth experienced in recent quarters but will be significantly above growth levels seen prior to the pandemic.

权力提供变得越来越关键

Whilst the cost of power is of concern to occupiers, it is the availability of and access to that power that is becoming increasingly challenging. Without sufficient power operating from a particular building or site, it may become too onerous. The supply of energy to sites via the National Grid is finite, and providing additional power through new connections and sub-stations is expensive and a protracted process.

占用者的需求通常包括为其业务的“未来范围”的元素，尤其是随着自动化的增长和电气运输的发展。占领者面临的挑战是获得达到技术进步的能力，同时以可持续的方式进行。开发人员对这些问题充满活力，许多新计划提供了太阳现成的准备和节能计划，这是我们将在明年及以后继续看到的趋势。

I＆L仍在贡献房地产投资的重大份额

今年的工业和物流投资市场的特征是重新定位时期，从第1季度的历史低点开始，质量收益率迅速在第三季度迅速提高到100个基点。到2022年底，从年初开始，主要收益率将提高到150个基点。

Repricing thus far has been most substantial in the logistics sector, outpacing other real estate sectors. We anticipate that the bulk of repricing of prime logistics assets will have happened this year, with early 2023 seeing a slowdown in prime yield movement before stabilising towards the end of the year.

Despite total real estate investment decreasing, the apportionment of investment for industrial and logistics has remained resilient, contributing 30% in Q3. Fund allocations are still targeting the industrial and logistics sector, which will continue to be attractive for investors due to anticipated continued rental growth.

Figure 12: UK real estate investment by I&L and other sectors, and I&L % of total investment

资料来源：CBRE研究（“其他部门”包括办公室，零售，住宅，医疗保健，酒店等）