Affordable Housing

经济压力面对经济压力，负担得起的住房部门将具有韧性。由于收入流的通货膨胀性质和强大的ESG证书，私人资本将在2023年继续针对该行业。

Key Takeaways

1. Housing associations are resilient, so the sector will remain robust as an asset class over the next year. Arguably, the need for affordable housing increases during an economic downturn.
2. The number of For-Profit Registered Providers (FPRPs) will continue to expand, which will drive investment in the sector. This will also be driven by the strong ESG credentials of affordable housing.
3. 预计非营利注册提供商（RPS）之间的合并将有所增加。在过去的几年中，有许多合并，预计在2023年将继续进行。
4. 政府的7％租金上限将意味着该行业需要以更有效和成本效益的方式行事，但这可能会影响价值。
5. There will be an increase in joint ventures and partnerships between local authorities, housing associations and investors. As we see more investment from private capital, organisations will explore more creative ways of investing in the affordable housing sector.

Increasing interest in affordable housing

目前有大量的不确定性前沿空中管制官ing the affordable housing sector. The wider economic environment is challenging, and the political environment has been in a state of flux, which will have a potential impact on policy. The 2022 Autumn Statement also confirmed that rent rises would be capped at 7% from April next year. This will at least help to reassure investors looking to deploy capital in 2023. However, from a tenant point of view, this level of rent inflation could lead to an increase in arrears. This may lead to voids and bad debts, which could translate into a value adjustment in 2023.

Regardless of any short-term rent caps, the CPI and RPI linked nature of the sector will still attract interest in 2023, particularly from private capital.

We are anticipating yields to move out over the course of 2023. However, affordable housing has some unique characteristics which may mean it fares better in a downturn relative to other real estate sectors. These include:

• Inflation linked revenue stream
• Low voids and bad debts
• Inelastic demand
• Counter-cyclical demand
• Robust ESG credentials

图19：英国营利性注册提供商

Source: Regulator of Social Housing

Additional mergers

在过去几年中，2016年《福利改革与工作法案》的租金减少驱动了许多非营利性RP之间的合并。我们预计这将在整个2023年持续。

RPs are broadly resilient, but a continued consolidation will help further strengthen smaller and less agile RPs. These new organisations can pool resources and are ultimately better equipped to weather the financial and operational impact resulting from an economic downturn.

我们预测，2023年将看到较小的比例合并。这将由RPS驱动，而RP少于1,000个物业，以寻求成为大型群体的一部分而带来的财务稳定性。雷电竞newbee这也可能导致2023年进一步的股票合理化。

共享所有权面临挑战

目前，没有针对此任期提出的租金上限和/或政府干预措施。但是，国家住房联合会已经讨论了可能与该行业的总租金上限7％相匹配。市场风险在租金和房屋价格通货膨胀率均分布，尽管RPI连接的租金增长将很强，但房价下跌可以软化整个行业的收益率。

In addition, only a limited number of lenders offer shared ownership mortgages. This, combined with higher mortgage rates, will be a challenge for prospective buyers in 2023 and curtail demand.

私人资本和该部门的机构利益将保持强大

The affordable sector continues to appeal to private capital, which is attracted by the demand and supply imbalance, indexed linked rents, and strong ESG credentials. Given the illiquidity of the sector, partnerships between housing associations and private capital are likely to increase.

Despite the financial uncertainty in 2022, and the recently announced rent cap, institutional interest in the sector remains strong. This will continue to grow in 2023, given the underlying need and demand for affordable housing.

FPRP的持续增长意味着，根据社会住房（RSH）的监管机构，有大约60个为FPRP注册的申请，等待完成。这些提供商以及其他新进入者将在2023年及以后的英国市场增加大量新的经济适用房。

重大的建筑成本通货膨胀将影响新计划的财务可行性，从而导致建筑活动和供应的放缓。此外，对于具有大量旧版股票的传统RP来说，对消防安全的持续关注是一个问题，但这也影响了某些RPS的收购需求。最后，我们预计新的一年的开局很慢，预计H2 2023的收购活动大部分。

Strong ESG credentials will drive investment

The strong ESG credentials of the affordable housing sector remain attractive to investors.

According to figures from Big Society Capital, social impact investment in the UK has grown nearly tenfold over ten years, from £830m in 2011, to £7.9bn in 2021. It states that around £1.6bn of investment was committed across approximately 1,300 investments in 2021. Social and affordable housing funds continue to account for the largest segment of the total market at £3.8bn.

但是，我们预测，在2023年，ESG目标与租金上限之间将进行权衡，预计明年将耗资13亿英镑。

RPS代表了一项良好的社会责任投资。因此，更多的RP将发布自己的ESG报告，以帮助投资者了解其证书，并最终吸引进一步的投资。