休闲与酒吧

各个亚市场的运营商处于恢复的各个阶段，信心正在增长。有一堵资本墙针对该行业，对运营平台的供应有多大需求。恢复的可见性以及对未来绩效的理解将继续成为每个子部门投资胃口和定价的关键预测指标。能够在曲线前评估恢复的投资者可以从交易上涨和定价改进中受益。

Key Takeaways

1. As the sector still holds high attractive inflation protection, urban leisure investment yields should start to stabilise. The delta between prime and secondary assets will increase, with yields anticipated to stabilise by the end of Q1 2023. Yields are unlikely to recover to 2019 levels until the debt markets fully recover.
2. The leisure sector is carrying very high debt levels, whilst finance costs have increased. Cost inflation and pressure on consumer spending will further squeeze operators. We expect operators to review debt positions, and some will take additional debt, or equity, to bridge gaps in their balance sheet.
3. 运营，债务和宏观经济压力将使休闲部门希望获得锁定资产的现金。运营商将寻求销售和租赁，或地面租金交易，以筹集资金而不会丢失站点。
4. Recessionary impact on consumer spend will challenge operators’ profitability. Nevertheless, historically leisure has fared well during recessions.

紧张的消费者支出将挑战运营商的盈利能力

我们预计，宏观经济动荡的影响是2023年的主要因素：

• 销售压力，由较低的消费者支出驱动
• Increased operating costs
• Higher debt costs caused by rising interest rates
• 许多运营商已经承担了Covid的债务负担增加

Health clubs

在全球金融危机期间，体育馆的会员资格被评为第三商品，仅次于假期和手机，人们最不可能减少支出。球拍俱乐部已经超过了其前的会员水平，并且众所周知，这对经济压力最有弹性。中型市场行业将看到进一步的整合，因为这些竞争对手从较弱的竞争对手那里寻求选择性的地点获取，该竞争对手将持续到2023年。

Cinema

由于运营商仍在2019年水平低于2019年的交易，因此电影再融资将继续进行，因此，某些公司的重组也将发生。对出勤的影响意味着现在某些现有站点被限制为当前的入场人数。随着观众人数继续在强大的电影板岩的背面上升，这应该在2023年缓解 - 但直到2024年该行业完全康复时，这可能不会。

Smaller operators such as Everyman, Curzons, The Light and Tivoli will continue to expand, albeit selectively and principally into urban areas with regional operators continuing to expand.

图23：主要的假日公园运营商

资料来源：CBRE预测

Holiday parks

The strong performance of the UK holiday park market continued for much of 2022. The sector is well placed for 2023, as it was in the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. The wider issues around overheads in other hospitality sectors will create pressure on the ability to retain profit margins. Operators have noted that the ability to drive ADR and AWF growth, as they did in 2021, will be problematic due to the wider economic situation. We forecast foreign travel to ease; however, and therefore, the domestic holiday market will be one of the most resilient sectors. Holiday home sales are also expected to ease in 2023 as more operators look towards fleet and hire units ahead of a busy summer.

酒吧

随着啤酒，食品，劳动力和能源的全部成本上涨，再加上贷款的贷款并达到贷款契约，许多运营商不再希望在2023年回到2019年的2019年利润。这对现金流有重大影响，在在某些情况下，企业的生存能力，我们预计公司会采取更多激动的行动。

我们已经开始看到投资收益率略有下降，但是强大的盟约和伟大的地点仍然很重要，应该保护某些站立投资的价值。这甚至可能是Freehold Operators在未来几个月内可能会寻找的路线。