办公室

办公室-based employment will fall in 2023 and this will constrain leasing activity across the UK, but the outlook for the best quality space remains positive. Increasing interest rates has caused pricing uncertainty, and this will create a more challenging environment for the investment market in the first half of the year.

Key Takeaways

1. 基于办公室的就业和衰退环境下降将限制办公室租赁市场的增长。在2023年，英国的办公空间将比2022年低。
2. 在2023年完成的大部分正在建设的办公空间或进行翻新，已经是Pre-LeT。尽管总体需求下降，但对最佳质量空间的持续强烈需求会导致对开发或翻新的需求保持很高。raybet开户
3. 质量较差或位置较差的办公空间将在2023年表现不佳。不符合大型占用者的环境目标的建筑物将是最难让，并且很可能经历漫长的空白时期。
4. Having already seen outward movement in 2022, it is expected that yields will expand further during the first half of 2023 in most UK office markets.
5. 定价将在2023年稳定，这将刺激更多的投资活动。办公室投资量预计将在2023年同比下降20％，大多数交易集中在下半年。

在2022年大幅增长之后，基于办公室的就业将在2023年下降

A slowdown in the UK economy will adversely impact demand for office space. Office based employment in the UK tracked by CBRE is expected to fall by c.1% in 2023. The fall in office jobs will impact all markets, however the forecast decline is more muted in Central London than other markets.

由于就业人数下降，相对于2022年水平，预计2023年英国办公室市场的收购将下降7％，略低于趋势水平。

市场将受到强大的空间渠道

我们将在英国办公室市场中，最早可能在2023年的完成日期进行建设的办公室开发raybet开户或翻新空间的109m平方英尺。这将比估计的全年2022年总计790万平方英尺。

Although take-up is expected to be below-trend in 2023, demand for the best quality space will remain robust. Of the space under construction and due for completion in 2023, 35% has already been pre-let, and the anticipated high levels of demand for development space will deplete the pipeline further as the year progresses.

Figure 8: UK office-based employment growth forecasts

资料来源：CBRE研究/ONS。涵盖六大办公室市场以及伦敦中部和东南部

Figure 9: Central London secondhand vacancy, time on market, size-weighted average

资料来源：CBRE研究

二手空间将在2023年表现不佳

The slowdown in leasing activity will be most notably felt in the secondhand office market, especially if the space is poorly located, or of poor quality. Average void periods for secondhand space will increase in 2023. For example, it is likely that secondhand void periods will reach 1,000 days in Central London by the end of the year (Q3 2022 average void period for secondhand space was 850 days).

2023投资下降将卷:yields have increased with rising interest rates

到目前为止，大多数英国办公市场的主要收益率在2022年的主要收益率上都在 +15-50 bps的范围内。At the end of Q3 2022, prime office yields stood at 3.5% in London’s West End (core markets of Mayfair & St James’s), following outward movement (+25 bps) during Q3 2022. The UK prime yield remained higher than its equivalent in several key EMEA markets, such as Paris (3.15%), Berlin (2.90%), and Madrid (3.25%).

Outward yield movement of up to 100 bps in some UK office markets is forecast for the final quarter of 2022. The Mayfair & St James’s prime yield is expected to end the year at 3.75% (+25 bps quarter-on-quarter). Yields are expected to increase in 2023, with prime yield compression resuming across UK office markets from 2024-2027. Overall, prime yields are expected to move out from their end of 2022 levels in most UK office markets.

Market uncertainty could limit investment volumes

针对伦敦办事处的股权已低于趋势水平，至330亿英镑，比2022年H1的水平下跌了30亿英镑。尽管有可用的资本，但并非所有投资者都会在当前市场上进行交易 - 我们估计，对伦敦感兴趣的股票约30％将在当前的市场条件下进行交易。

2023年至162亿英镑的数量，其中预计在伦敦市中心市场为105亿英镑。在H1 2023中，量可能会受到更大的约束，预计在下半年将会恢复。

图10：针对伦敦的股权（£bn）

资料来源：CBRE研究