经济前景对债务市场意味着什么？

债务市场已被k的影响ey events this year, such as the crisis in Ukraine, high energy prices and the repricing of risk. All have contributed to a higher interest rate environment and fears of a recession in a number of countries. However, it’s a complicated picture; the strength of the Dollar compared to Sterling and the Euro is making assets in the UK and Europe appear cheap to Dollar-based buyers. Furthermore, inbound tourism from the US, Middle East and some parts of Asia is up significantly, even on pre-Covid activity levels.

在英国，索尼亚（Sonia）是大多数商业债务所撰写的基础，自迷你预算以来的时期内提高了200个基点。自从任命新总理以来，我们已经看到了一些减少，但在过去的12个月中，债务的全部成本增加了约4％，这影响了所有房地产贷款的定价。

Lenders are moderating the LTVs they are prepared to offer, to ensure there is cash flow available for debt service. Depending on the asset class and location, we have seen LTVs fall by 5-10% over the course of 2022.

首先，没有类似于我们在2008/09年看到的信用紧缩的迹象。2022年初的借款人级别的LTV低于我们进入全球金融危机的20％，这次银行的资本化高达2-3倍。债务基金为借款人提供了比以前和以前仅以更高的LTV/更高成本贷款而闻名的更多选择，但许多资金使他们的投资者基础多样化，并且可以使用可以定价或关闭的资金大型银行提供的债务成本。我们已经在许多OPRE资产类别（例如酒店和自存储）中看到了这一点，有时很难区分与银行和资金的报价。

在英国所有资产类别中，债务基金的市场份额约为20％，银行继续成为债务资本的主要提供商，特别是对于传统的RE资产类别。但是，在OPRE部门中，这是不同的情况，而基金仅占债务债务团队自19次发作以来关闭交易的债务资本的50％以上。

We believe banks and funds both continue to remain relevant, and we have seen a recent trend of sponsor and clients favouring lower LTV/lower cost debt, often more efficiently provided by banks, as the all-in cost of higher LTV debt has trended closer to their cost of equity.

现在说市场仍在调整还为时过早。但是，在赞助商/客户方面，那些拥有固定利率贷款或已有有效的对冲策略的人受到了很好的保护。一旦市场完全重新校准，那些拥有新资本的投资者（股权，债务或特殊情况）也将得到很好的位置。

不是失败者本身，但我们希望在2023年和24日看到再融资的浪潮，我们的一些客户现在已经通过寻求再融资条款来领先。在接下来的24个月内拥有到期的借款人将面临一个市场，即使在现在可从贷方获得的LTV上，借贷成本也增加（可能是双倍）。这意味着他们可能需要将权益纳入交易，以获得最佳的再融资条款，或者从不同的贷方群体中寻求替代和创造性的解决方案，我们看到客户在寻求该领域的建议和指导的客户中有了显着的增长。

You need to scan the entire lender universe for the most appropriate debt product or lender for your particular cost of capital and investment strategy. Liquidity is absolutely available, but it is gravitating to the best located deals for the best sponsors. In some ways, OPRE borrowers such as Hotels and Healthcare have faced a dislocated market for some time and while the challenges are now being seen in other asset classes, I think OPRE borrowers and lenders are resilient and will pull through successfully.

We are pleased to say we have supported several high quality ESG rated loans. It is clear an increasing number of lenders are becoming more prescriptive about ESG credentials, and this is a key part of their underwriting. The financial benefit to gaining the top ESG rating is, however, limited (say 5bps per annum reduction on the loan margin) but we expect this to become more of a binary discussion in the future, i.e liquidity will reduce significantly for non-compliant financings.